【题目】Is Hong Kong Dollar Overvalued?

【主讲人】李奇教授，美国德克萨斯农工大学经济系终身教授

【主持人】赖德胜教授，北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院院长

【时间】2014年7月2日（星期三）10：00 - 11：30

【地点】后主楼1620

【主讲人简介】李奇教授目前是德克萨斯农工大学（Texas A & M University） 经济系的终身教授、首都经济贸易大学国际经济管理学院院长；李奇教授自1990年以来发表120多篇学术论文，其中大部分发表于世界一流经济学、计量经济学以及统计学期刊，包括American Economic Review (AER), Econometrica, Journal of American Statistical Association (JASA),  Annals of Statistics, Review of Economic and Statistics, Journal of Economic Theory, Journal of Econometrics, International Economic Reviews, Journal of Economics and Business Statistics, Games and Economic Behavior, Econometric Theory等等；担任Journal of Econometrics, Econometric Theory, Econometrics Journal, Economics Letter 等多家一流学术期刊的Coeditor 和Associate Editor；曾在全球前1000名经济学家中排第149位，华人经济学家中排第4位；在全球理论计量经济学家中排第23位。

【内容简介】Using a novel panel data method, this paper studies the effects of Hong Kong's fixed exchange rate against U.S. dollar. After the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, many of the Asia countries adopted flexible exchange rate policies while Hong Kong still keeps its fixed exchange rate. By comparing Hong Kong versus its major trading partners, we show that if like other Asian countries, Hong Kong had adopted a float exchange rate policy in August 1997, Hong Kong's (counterfactual) total value of exports would increase by 21.28%. Similarly, Hong Kong's total value of imports would increase about 41.07%. We conclude that Hong Kong dollar is overvalued by 18.33% due to its fixed exchange rate policy.

主办单位：经济与工商管理学院研究生会