【题  目】The Effect of Fiscal Uncertainty on Household Expectations: Evidence from a Survey Experiment

【时  间】2024年4月24日（星期三），14:00-15:30

【地  点】后主楼1722会议室

【主讲人】郭俊杰 副教授（中央财经大学金融学院）

【主持人】徐立成 助理教授（北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院）

摘要：Using a new survey of households, we study how exogenous variation in the uncertainty of the government fiscal policy affects their macroeconomic expectations and consumption-saving decisions. To generate exogenous changes in the perceived uncertainty in government spending growth rate, we use randomized information treatments: half of our respondents received information about a stimulus fiscal policy, the other half received extra information that the policy could be possibly removed. Uncertainty about the fiscal policy dampens the crowding-out effect regarding households' spending. Moreover, we find that under fiscal uncertainty, people tend to have higher expectation on the unemployment rate, but lower expectations on GDP growth rate and interest rate. We also show evidence of Ricardian equivalence that households expect higher income tax if their perceived government spending growth rate to be high. Our results have important implications on fiscal policy communication.

报告人简介：

郭俊杰，男，中央财经大学金融学院副教授，分别于2020年和2014年获得美国印第安纳大学的经济学博士学位以及中国人民大学的金融学学士学位。长期致力于货币财政政策、宏观金融以及实证宏观等领域的研究，在《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《金融研究》以及Journal of Applied Econometrics等国内外重要期刊发表十余篇论文，主持国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目1项，担任Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization、Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control以及《世界经济》等中英文期刊的匿名审稿人。