【题  目】Elective Affinities: The Evolving Social Graph of World Trade

【时  间】2026年9月23日（星期三），14:00-15:30

【地  点】后主楼1722会议室

【主讲人】Martin Klein教授（Martin-Luther University）

【主持人】杨澄宇 教授（北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院）

摘要：

This paper analyzes the structural evolution of global trade by mapping a social graph based on each country’s top trading partner. Using WITS data from 1998 to 2023, it identifies how these primary trade relationships have formed three major clusters centered on China, the United States, and Germany. The findings show how this tripartite configuration emerged from an earlier bipolar structure and how shifts in top‑partner affiliations reflect long‑term changes in production networks, regional integration, and patterns of international cooperation. The paper argues that future trade dynamics will be shaped by economic scale, geographic centrality, and the growing importance of political factors in shaping trade preferences. In this context, China’s expanding role reflects its increasing economic weight and deep integration into global value chains. The framework provides a structural perspective on evolving trade dependencies and highlights the strategic considerations facing Europe as global trade becomes more shaped by both economic fundamentals and geopolitical developments.

报告人简介：

Martin Klein，德国Martin-Luther University经济系教授，主要研究领域为国际经济学。