【题  目】Household Saving and Consumption Responses to Export Slowdown in China

【时  间】2026年6月17日（星期三），14:00-15:30

【地  点】后主楼1610会议室

【主讲人】李凝晖 讲  师（南开大学经济学院）

【主持人】曹思未 副教授（北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院） 

摘要：Using urban household data and variation in city-level export growth with a shift-share instrument, we find that an export slowdown leads to saving rate declines during 2010–2016, as it reduces income while associated with insignificant changes in consumption. Saving rate declines are concentrated among households with children and are driven by a rising share of income allocated to human-capital-related consumption, including food, clothing, education, and medical care. We propose an explanation that households partially maintain expenditures related to children’s human capital amid adverse income shocks. Consistent with this explanation, saving and consumption adjustments are more pronounced in early childhood and under stricter fertility restrictions, while they are weaker among multi-child households with girl(s), who experienced larger declines in height than boys during the export slowdown. 

报告人简介：   

李凝晖，南开大学经济学院助理教授，2023年在加州大学戴维斯分校获得经济学博士学位。主要研究领域为国际贸易和宏观经济学，部分研究成果已在国际货币基金组织公开发布。