【题  目】Pains or Gains: Trade War, Trade Deficit, and Tariff Evasion

【时  间】2025年4月22日（星期二） 14:00-16:00

【地  点】腾讯会议 934-422-098

【主讲人】车  翼 教授（华东理工大学商学院）

【主持人】蔡宏波 教授（北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院）

摘要：This paper reveals that the reduction in the US-China trade deficit during the trade war obscured reporting discrepancies in US imports of Chinese products due to tariff evasion. We empirically examine the effect of the US-China trade war on tariff evasion in US imports of Chinese goods and provide direct evidence that market demand of entry states contributes significantly to tariff evasion. Using the input-output table, we find that a one standard deviation increase in local demand causes a 1.312-fold rise in tariff evasion for affected products post–trade war. This effect mainly works through intermediate goods, and its impact grows as importers' tariff liabilities increase. Further analysis considering local social environments shows that voters' attitudes toward trade protection and the development of labor unions play crucial roles in mediating the influence of market demand on tariff evasion.

报告人简介：

    车翼，华东理工大学商学院教授、博士生导师，临港-华东理工大学自贸区创新研究院副院长。获得教育部第八届高等学校科学研究优秀成果奖（人文社会科学）青年成果奖、上海市浦江人才计划；主持国家自然科学基金2项（面上、青年）；担任上海市世界经济学会青年专委会副主任及上海市国际贸易学会常务理事。研究发表于Journal of International Economics、Journal of International Business Studies、Economic Journal、《经济学（季刊）》、《数量经济技术经济研究》等国内外一流期刊，出版教材1部，同时任American Economic Review等期刊审稿专家。