时间：12月16日 15:30 – 17:00

地点：后主楼1610

演讲人：张睿（丹麦奥胡斯大学）

主持人：戴觅（北京师范大学）

标题：Market Interdependence Through Shared Suppliers: Theory and Evidence from Termination of the Multifiber Arrangement

摘要：Leveraging the event of quota lifting by members of Multifiber Arrangement in 2005, we use a difference-in-differences design that compares firm-level Chinese exports of the previously-capped and uncapped products to the countries outside of the MFA. We find strong evidence of market interdependence empirically. The quota removal led to a significant decrease in the exports of MFA-capped products. The suppliers with dampened sales either increased sales in the liberalizing markets or entered them for the first time. We interpret these findings in a multi-country trade model with increasing marginal cost of production. In the model, the marginal cost rises when firms begin to serve markets with growing demand, resulting in a fall in sales in, or even exit, from the countries outside of the MFA. We derive welfare changes in the exporter country, accounting for changes in marginal costs. Our analysis suggests that gains from trade liberalization in the participating countries may come at the expense of the others.

个人简介：张睿，丹麦奥胡斯大学商业与社会科学学院经济与商业经济系（Aarhus University BSS, Department of Economics and Business Economics）助理教授，2019年毕业于北京大学国家发展研究院中国经济研究中心，获经济学博士学位。主要研究方向为国际经济学、空间经济学、发展经济学、中国经济。曾在《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《经济学（季刊）》、《金融研究》、Review of Development Economics等期刊发表论文10余篇，获《世界经济年鉴》“十佳论文”、国际贸易实证研究论坛（FREIT）举办的RMET会议和EIIT会议最佳博士生论文奖。