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2011年12月22日经济学Seminar
发布时间：2011-12-16
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主题：Family Planning Policy in China: Measurement and Impact on Fertility
主讲人：Fei Wang
(University of Southern California)
[内容提要] The family planning policy in China has been widely studied, but its impact on fertility is still an issue with controversial conclusions. One source of the disagreement is the difference in measuring the family planning policy. Most previous measures generally did not completely capture the secular and cross-sectional policy variations, failed to heterogeneously express people's exposures to the policy, and sometimes suffered from the problem of endogeneity. This paper reviews the history of family planning policy in China, and based on that constructs a new measure which can embody the policy variations more completely, heterogeneously, and exogenously. Using a cross-sectional data of the China Health and Nutrition Survey, this paper estimates the impact of family planning policy on the number of children ever born to a woman based on the new measure, and finds that the measure can well fit the complete history of family planning policy, can explain a sizable fertility change in the data, and can serve as a qualified instrumental variable for fertility. Moreover, women with more years of education, living in richer provinces, or whose first child is son, tend to actively control their births and face fewer restrictions from the policy. The paper also shows that, women tend to delay the first marriage and childbearing in response to the family planning policy.
主持人：罗楚亮
时间：12月22日下午2点半至4点
地点：北师大后主楼1610
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