北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院
 
 
 

CIID课程:IMA主席主讲“公共政策的微观模拟分析”
发布日期: 2018-03-05  浏览次数:

   
    为进一步推动中国微观模拟相关问题的研究,促进该领域的学术交流与合作,我院政策模拟中心邀请国际微观模拟协会(IMA)主席Gijs Dekkers教授莅临我校开展为期三天的“公共政策的微观模拟分析”培训课程。课程将于2018年3月14日-3月16日在北京师范大学后主楼1620展开。
    本次课程免费,可为听课的校外师生提供免费午餐(15日&16日)。
    报名链接:
https://www.wjx.top/jq/21077813.aspx
    中国微观模拟研究研讨会将于3月14日上午召开,国内外微观模拟领域专家共议中国微观模拟研究的现状和未来发展,会议由我院执行院长李实教授主持,请关注我院后续通知。

主讲人:

   Gijs Dekkers

   
    国际微观模拟协会主席--President of International Microsimulation Association (IMA)
    比利时联邦规划局高级分析师--Senior Analyst at the Federal Planning Bureau
    鲁汶大学教授--Professor of University of Leuven

    详细课程安排如下:

    Day 1 March 14th ,Wednesday
    第一天 3月14日,周三
    14:00-17:00 An overview of dynamic microsimulation models used outside academics in EU member states
                欧盟成员国非学术研究部门应用的动态微观模拟模型的简述

    Day 2 March 15th ,Thursday
    第二天 3月15日,周四
    9:00-12:00  Application of dynamic microsimulation——The social and budgetary impacts of the 2015 social security reform in Belgium
                动态微观模拟的应用——2015年比利时社会保障改革的社会效应和财政效应
    14:00-17:00 Application of dynamic microsimulation——Assessing the consequences of the AWG projections and hypotheses on pension adequacy: Simulation results for Belgium, Sweden and Hungary.
                动态微观模拟的应用——对欧盟老龄化工作小组(AWG)关于养老金给付水平适当性的假设和预测结果的评估:基于比利时、瑞典和匈牙利的模拟结果

    Day 3 March 16th ,Friday
    第三天 3月16日,周五
    9:00-12:00 LIAM 2 (I):a new open source development tool for the development of discrete-time dynamic microsimulation models
               LIAM 2 (I):离散时间的动态微观模拟模型的工具
    14:00-17:00 LIAM 2 (II):a new open source development tool for the development of discrete-time dynamic microsimulation models
                LIAM 2 (II):离散时间的动态微观模拟模型的工具

    课程摘要

    1. An overview of dynamic microsimulation models used outside academics in EU member states. 
    Retirement income provision via public pension schemes is a traditional field in which dynamic microsimulation have been used. Many models used outside of academia in EU member states are less well known, because they are less often documented in English, and their results not often published in international journals and reports. 
    The aim of this presentation is to introduce various types of dynamic microsimulation models (longitudinal -, cross-sectional and static aging), discrete or continuous time, single or multiple “model points”, data sources) and discuss their pros and cons. Next, an overview of models used by public institutions or ministries will be discussed. This awareness of what is going on elsewhere might allow the audience to assess their own (possible) investments or developments and learn from others.
    Based on Gijs Dekkers and Karel Van Den Bosch, 2016 - Prospective microsimulation of pensions in European Member States. In: Dekkers, Gijs, and József Mészáros (Eds), 2017, Applications of microsimulation modelling, Budapest: Társadalombiztosítási Könyvtár. 13-33, ISBN 978 963 693 766 9.

    2. Application of dynamic microsimulation——The social and budgetary impacts of the 2015 social security reform in Belgium
    This presentation discusses the impact of recent social security reform on the development of sustainability as well as adequacy in Belgium. The impact analyses in this paper have been done using two separate yet consistent models. The analysis of the budgetary impact is based on the MALTESE system of models (Model for Analysis of Long-Term Evolution of Social Expenditure). The analysis of the adequacy of the social security reform is done using the most recent version of the dynamic microsimulation model MIDAS (Microsimulation for the Development of Adequacy and Sustainability).
    This presentation demonstrates the use of microsimulation jointly with budgetary meso-models in the assessment of reform of pensions, unemployment and early retirement schemes. It also shows the sometimes unexpected results of microsimulation models, thereby highlighting their value.
    Based on Gijs Dekkers, Raphaël Desmet, Saskia Weemaes and Nicole Fasquelle, 2015, The social and budgetary impacts of recent social security reform in Belgium. Based on: Gijs Dekkers, Raphaël Desmet, Nicole Fasquelle, Saskia Weemaes, 2015, The social and budgetary impacts of recent social security reform in Belgium. In Ioana Salagean, Catalina Lomos & Anne Hartung, “The young and the elderly at risk: Individual outcomes and contemporary policy challenges in European societies”, Intersentia. ISBN 978-1-78068-343-0. Chapter 6, pp. 129-158.

    3. Application of dynamic microsimulation——On using dynamic microsimulation models to assess the consequences of the AWG projections and hypotheses on pension adequacy: Simulation results for Belgium, Sweden and Hungary. 
    This presentation is based on an international project done in the context of the 2015PAR. The SPC wg AGE (A European-level policy group of high-ranking civil servants of which I am one of the representatives for Belgium) decided that Belgium, Hungary and Sweden would use their dynamic microsimulation models to simulate possible developments of pension adequacy, while taking into account the projections and hypotheses of the AWG. The results of this project not only show the consequences of the AWG hypotheses and projections on prospective poverty risks in countries with different pension systems and under different circumstances, but also demonstrate the potential value of using dynamic microsimulation on the EU level.
    This presentation makes the case of assessing aging and (pension) policy from the angle of sustainability and adequacy jointly. As such, it bridges the gap between EPC/AWG on the one hand, and SPC on the other.
    Based on Gijs Dekkers, Raphaël Desmet, Ádám Rézmovits, Olle Sundberg, and Krisztián Tóth), On using dynamic microsimulation models to assess the consequences of the AWG projections and hypotheses on pension adequacy: Simulation results for Belgium, Sweden and Hungary. Based on a paper presented to the SPC Working Group on Ageing Issues (SPC-WG-AGE), Brussels, March 27th, 2015.
    NOTE: within the SPC wg AGE, an update of this exercise is currently going on, with my again as project manager. I will probably be able to present the 2018 results instead of those of 2015.

    4. LIAM 2: a new open source development tool for the development of discrete-time dynamic microsimulation models. 
    LIAM2 is an open source language for the development and use of static and dynamic (discrete-time cross-sectional aging) models. It has been developed by the FPB, in collaboration with LISER, and is being used by various modelling teams worldwide. LIAM2 is based on Python. It is open source and therefore free of charge, and can be downloaded from the LIAM2 website http://liam2.plan.be/
    This presentation will start with discussing the goals and philosophies behind LIAM2, a brief comparison with other specific simulation tools (Modgen, Jamsim, …). 
    The main part will however be and a hands-on demonstration of a number of simple exemplary static and dynamic microsimulation models, using a small dataset. This requires that LIAM2 and its demonstration package is downloaded from the website onto the PC used for the presentations.
    If a computer room is available, then the audience could use LIAM2 itself to work on the basis of these examples.
    The idea behind this course is not so much to convince the audience to adopt LIAM2 or not, but rather to show the use of a(ny) taylor-made language for microsimulation, and to inspire the audience for their own methodological developments.
    Among other things based on de Menten, Gaëtan, Gijs Dekkers, Geert Bryon, Philippe Liégeois, Cathal O’Donoghue, 2014, LIAM2: a new open source development tool for discrete-time dynamic microsimulation models, Journal of Artificial Societies and Simulation, 17(3)9.


 

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