我院青年教师李堃作为独立作者的论文“An Intra-day Analysis of Electricity Forward Premia”在2018年12月的AIEE能源经济学年度研讨会上被接收并受邀进行报告。AIEE委员会从投稿的两百余篇论文遴选出12篇优秀论文，出版在当年的年刊上。这是李堃老师继2017年后第二次入选AIEE年度优秀论文。该论文为本届入选的12篇论文中唯一一篇来自中国大学与科研机构的论文。

AIEE 出版封面

AIEE入选论文目录

意大利能源经济学会(Associazione Italiana Economisti dell' Energia，AIEE)创始于1977年，拥有3500多名会员和29个子机构，是欧洲乃至全球最有影响力的能源经济学术机构之一。该学会主办的能源经济研讨会是能源经济学领域中具有国际影响力的学术会议(CPCI-SSH检索)。

论文简介：

The purpose of this study is to explore the price dynamics in the electricity market. We study the forward premium, which is defined as the difference between the forward price and the expected spot price of electricity. Using a dataset which includes multi-transmission-lines with hour-based frequency, we first observe that the electricity forward premium exists in our data, with a large variance, and a negative skewness. Second, we test both the time-varying and cross-sectional effects in the relationship between short-term forward prices and realized spot prices. We decompose the forward price into two components: transmission congestion cost and cost of marginal losses, and we find that the forward transmission congestion cost dominates the forward premium and consequently leads to a higher realized spot price. Third, we derive a new method to examine the significance of seasonality impact in forward premia. We find that the significant calendar effects in forward prices are different from those in spot prices. These results confirm the forward premium, and further extend the existing empirical literature by studying the properties of forward premium documenting new-risk-factor-related time variation.