北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院
 
 
 

【论文】Rui Mao,徐建炜,Jingxian Zou:“The labor force age structure and employment structure of the modern sector”
发布日期: 2018-11-22  浏览次数:

Rui Mao,徐建炜,Jingxian Zou. The labor force age structure and employment structure of the modern sector. China Economic Review, Volume 52, December 2018, Pages 1-15.

Abstract:

This paper studies the relationship between population aging and structural change in terms of employment distribution in the non-agricultural sector. Based on cross-country panel data, it is revealed that a greater share of elderly workers in the labor force is associated with more service employment relative to that in the industrial sector. To rationalize this finding, a two-sector overlapping generations model is constructed. The model highlights two forces, namely the “scale effect (SE)” and the “composition effect (CE)”, that drive the correlation between the labor force age structure and the service-industry employment ratio. Calibrating main model parameters with China's micro level data, simulation results well fit the country's historical trajectory of structural change. According to population forecast data, the model predicts a substantial growth of services relative to the industrial sector in China up to 2050.


 

北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院

Copyright © 2011 北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院  网站设计与开发:北京师范大学信息网络中心
地址:北京市新街口外大街19号    邮编:100875    传真:010-58801867
 
  北师大经管学院微信公众号